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[R(B) – R(A, B) R(A’, B)]/N In the special case where the rating type is “decision,” the averages correspond to frequencies, and for easy of comparison with other features these are most naturally replaced by their log odds ratios, so I did this.

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Given a rating type R, and two participants A and B whose decisions we’re trying to predict, let R(A, B) be the rating that A gave B, and let R(B) be the sum of the ratings that were given to B. One might think that the right features to look at are [R(B) – R(A, B)]/(N – 1) (**) But perhaps surprisingly, these features are contaminated with the decisions we’re trying to predict, to such a degree that if one didn’t notice this, one would end up with a model with far greater predictive power than one would have in practice.If one were to apply the model in a real world setting, one would collect data that allowed one to quantify the expected regression to the mean, and also to improve the model.



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